K96.3FM Radio Spot

Looking like a turnaround in US economy in the works:

Employment number up
Housing numbers up
Manufacturing numbers up
Balance of trade down in both US and Canada
Consumer confidence up

Is this real or are we living in some sort of fantasy.

You have to be careful when you look at numbers on a one off basis. The key is to look at the trend. For example, despite last weeks positive number in housing the trend for housing for the last 3 months is down.

David Rosenberg has a contrarian view(cheif Strategist for Gluskin Shelf) His top themes for 2011 are:
1. global growth is gowing to slow, so be cautious with your cyclical exposure
2. deflation is still a risk, so bonds will enjoy positive returns
3. biggest macro risk is another leg down in home prices
4. The US$ will strengthen and the Cdn $ is overvalued
The risk is that all the government intervention is creating a fantasyland. If David Rosenberg's themes play out in 2011, then we could see the big bad wolf huffn' n puffn'.