Global Ageing and the Crisis of the 2020's - Introduction

I thought I'd make the next few days story time. There's a great piece by Neil Howe and Richard Jackson titled Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020's which was featured in the latest Outside the Box. Both Neil and Richard work with the Center for Strategic and Interntional Studies on the Global Aging Initiative. When they write, it pays to pay attention. Global aging is likely to have a profound effect on economic growth, living standards, and the shape of the world order. So here's an introduction:

"From the fall of the roman and the Mayan empires, to the Black Death, to the colonization of the New World, and the youth-driven revolutions of the twentieth century, demographic trends have played a decisive role in many of the great invasions, political upheavals, migrations, and environmental catastrophes of history. For the world's wealthy nations, the 2020's are set to be a decade of rapid population aging and population decline. Falling birthrates are not only transforming traditional population pyramids, leaving them top-heavy with elders, but are also ushering in a new era of workforce and population decline. These trends threaten to undermine the ability of today's developed countries to maintain global security.

Rising pension and health care costs will place intense pressure on government budgets, potentially crowding out spending on other priorities, including national defense and foreign assistance. The weakening of the developed countries might not be a cause for concern if we knew that the world as a whole were likely to become more pacific. The risk of social and political upheaval could grow throughout the developing world, even as the developed world's capacity to deal with such threats decline."

... to be continued.

GB