The Oil Winter/Spring strategy is one of the strongest seasonal out-performance trends according to Thackray. From 1984 to 2008, the two-and-a-half months starting on February 25 and ending May 9, the energy sector has outperformed the S&P500 23 out of 25 times, and by an average of 6%; also impressive is the positive performance 23 out of 25 times.

As the winter progresses, refineries start to convert their operations from heating oil to gasoline. During the switch-over time, low inventory levels of both heating oil and gasoline can drive up the prices of a barrel of oil and oil stocks. In early May, before the kick-off the driving season, the refineries have finished their conversion and the price of oil and oil stocks tend to decline.

Turning to the markets, as of February 15th, 386 companies in the S&P500 had reported fourth quarter results, and of those 69.7% reported positive earnings surprises. So far, adjusted earnings are tracking towards $22.72US per share, a 35% YOY increase.

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