Is the Santa Claus Rally Almost Done?
Is the Santa Claus Rally almost done?
On the one hand, the S&P500 has broken through key resistance levels to close at a two year high. At 1240, the S&P500 is well above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 2008/2009 bear market slide. This increases the probability of a further retracement to another key level, which is 76.4% or 1362.
On the other hand, recent volume is well below average. The 15-day moving average of the advance/decline ratio on the New York Stock exchange is in decline, currently sitting at 1.5 after peaking in July at twice that. According to Paul Hussman, PhD: "Don't take risk in overvalued, overbought, over bullish, rising yield environment." More on this tomorrow.
GB
On the one hand, the S&P500 has broken through key resistance levels to close at a two year high. At 1240, the S&P500 is well above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 2008/2009 bear market slide. This increases the probability of a further retracement to another key level, which is 76.4% or 1362.
On the other hand, recent volume is well below average. The 15-day moving average of the advance/decline ratio on the New York Stock exchange is in decline, currently sitting at 1.5 after peaking in July at twice that. According to Paul Hussman, PhD: "Don't take risk in overvalued, overbought, over bullish, rising yield environment." More on this tomorrow.
GB
posted by Gordon Bell at
7:57 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home