Perilous Transitions

"Although the world's wealthy nations are leading the way into humanity's graying future, aging is a global phenomenon. The demographic outlook in the developing world, however, is shaping up to be one of extraordinary diversity. Notwithstanding this diversity, some demographers and political scientists believe that the unfolding of the transition is ushering in a new era in which demographic trends will promote global stability.

The thesis may be flawed. More fundamentally, the demographic peace thesis lacks any realistic sense of historical process. Economists, sociologists, and historians who have studied the development process agree that societies, as they move from traditional to the modern, are buffeted by powerful and disorienting social, cultural, and economic crosswinds.

Along with the economic benefits of rising living standards, development also brings the social costs of rapid urbanization, growing income inequality, and environmental degradation. The demographic transition can trigger a rise in extremism. Ethnic tensions can also grow. There's only one historical example of a large group of countries that has completed the entire demographic transition - Today's (mostly Western) developed nations." - by Neil Howe and Richard Jackson.

GB